Panic Without Proof

Claims that transgender Americans pose a public safety threat are among the most persistent myths in today’s culture wars. Scrutiny of the evidence reveals a very different reality: transgender individuals are not driving violent crime; they are among its most vulnerable targets. The numbers are clear: society’s duty is to protect them, not stigmatize them. 1. The Demographic Reality Approximately 1% of the U.S. population identifies as transgender, roughly 2.3–2.8 million people, including over 700,000 teenagers.¹ ² This small share of the population cannot plausibly be shaping national crime statistics, contrary to what fear-mongers claim. Understanding this scale is crucial to putting the so-called “trans threat” in perspective. 2. Crime Perpetration: The Numbers Do Not Add Up Data on violent crime contradicts the narrative of transgender danger: Out of thousands of U.S. mass shootings, fewer than 10 were committed by transgender individuals (~0.1%).³ In a dataset of 173 mass attacks, only 3 perpetrators (2%) were transgender.³ Newsweek reviewed more than 300 mass shootings since 2009 and found only four transgender or non-binary suspects (~1.3%).⁴ These figures make it evident: transgender Americans are almost entirely absent from violent crime statistics. 3. Crime Victimization: The Real Story Transgender Americans face violence at alarmingly elevated levels: LGBT individuals overall are five times more likely to experience violent victimization; transgender people face four to five times higher risk than other Americans.⁵ The National Crime Victimization Survey (2017–18) recorded 86 victimizations per 1,000 transgender individuals, compared with 21.7 per 1,000 non-trans individuals.⁶ From 2017 to 2023, at least 263 transgender Americans were murdered, with nearly 80% killed using firearms.⁷ Black transgender women are disproportionately affected, representing over 75% of homicides in 2022.⁸ These figures show that transgender Americans are victims of sustained, targeted violence. 4. The Missing Comparison: Where the Real Threat Lies By contrast, the real perpetrators of mass violence are overwhelmingly: Male: 97.7% of mass shooters are men.⁹ White men are overrepresented among mass shooters.¹⁰ Ideologically extremist: The ADL reported that all extremist-linked mass killings in 2022 were tied to white supremacist ideology.¹¹ Persistent domestic threats: DHS identifies racially and ethnically motivated violent extremists as the “most persistent and lethal threat” to the homeland.¹² From 2010–2022, white supremacist extremists were responsible for 55% of domestic terror incidents and the majority of related deaths.¹³ The evidence demonstrates that focusing on transgender individuals is a distraction from real threats. 5. The Politics of Fear Why does the myth persist? Scapegoating minorities has long been a political tool: Historical parallels: Irish, Jewish, Black, and gay communities have all been demonized similarly. Social media amplifies isolated anecdotes, creating the illusion of widespread danger. The narrative distracts from real, documented threats and justifies harmful policies against a vulnerable minority. 6. A Moral Imperative This is not merely a debate over numbers. Transgender Americans face a real epidemic of violence. Fabricating a “threat” compounds their vulnerability. The data are clear: Transgender people are 1% of the population. They commit virtually none of the nation’s mass shootings. They endure far higher rates of victimization and homicide. The dominant perpetrators of domestic extremist violence are young, male, and ideologically radicalized. The “trans threat” is a political invention. The real threat is ignored male and extremist violence. Society’s responsibility is to recognize facts and protect those most at risk. References / Footnotes Williams Institute, UCLA School of Law – Trans Adults in the United States (2025). The Guardian – “More than 2.8 m people in US identify as trans, including 724,000 youth” (Aug 2025). Reuters – Most mass school shootings are not carried out by transgender people (Sept 2024). Newsweek – How Many Mass Shootings Were Committed by Transgender People? (2023). Williams Institute – LGBT People Face Higher Rates of Violent Victimization (2020). RTI International – Gender Identity Disparities in Criminal Victimization (2017–18). Everytown for Gun Safety – Preventing Transgender Homicides (2023). Human Rights Campaign – An Epidemic of Violence (2022). National Institute of Justice / Violence Project: “Of 172 mass shooters, 97.7% were male.” Northeastern Global News: “White men dominate U.S. mass shooter demographics.” ADL (Anti-Defamation League) – Murder and Extremism in the United States (2022). U.S. DHS – 2020 Homeland Threat Assessment. Center for Strategic and International Studies – The Escalating Terrorism Problem in the United States (2020).